Retro America vs. Metro America - why "The Great Divide" got it wrong

In relation to this. Look at the map. President Bush carried the same states as last time. It looks like the only differences on the map will be that Bush will win Iowa and lose New Hampshire, but it's not going to make any odds. The issue is simple: it's the demographics, stupid. The states that Gore and Kerry carried had a net loss of six electoral college votes since 2000; the states that Bush won made a net GAIN of six votes.

Now, my point is this: there's a book written by a democratic contributor called John Sperling called "The Great Divide" that basically says Democrats should abandon the red states as a lost cause - forget retro America and forge ahead in metro America. Sperling argues that this will allow the democrats to win in the medium term. But yesterday proved the fallacy of such a strategy: Bush won on the red states alone. The next Republican candidate can ALSO win on the red states alone. The demographics are trending towards greater representation for the red states, not the blue states.

There's another factor to discuss here. Internal migration into the red states was something I discussed above, as a force that will increase representation for the Red states in the US House, and thus the electoral college. However, there is a break on this process: migration into the red states is dependent upon the necessity of paying work, and good-paying work is supposedly hard to find in those states. But what about retirees? Retirees don't want work - they want lots of land for what money they have, and cheap goods to buy. The great plains states - red states, all - have cheap land, and WalMart has cheap goods. Consider this: we have an aging population, which means that the proportion of retirees to workers is shifting in favour of retirees - and the baby boomers are about to retire. It's very possible that the migration into the red states - and thus the electoral weight of those states - could grow exponentially in the next two generations.

The fat lady has sung

I know I'm reposting stuff I've already posted across several threads, but this isn't just Kerry losing the Presidency, this is an absolutely seismic shift in American politics.

President Bush has kept every state he won last time and gathered a few more, and with far stronger numbers. 11 states have voted to ban gay marriage, by majorities ranging from 2-to-1 to 6-to-1. The Republicans have picked up about 10 seats in the US House, and gone from a one vote majority in the Senate to a five vote majority in the Senate; the Democrat's leader Tom Daschle lost his Senate seat in SD, and Louisiana - which has NEVER elected a Republican senator before - now has one. Indiana has ended 16 years of Democratic governors and state legislatures, and will now have a Republican governor and a Republican regislature. Over the course of the next four years, expect to see the balance in the Supreme Court change fundamentally, too.

Only 17% of voters aged 18-29 bothered to turn out to an election where, as rarely so acutely before, America stood at a crossroads. For better or worse, this isn't just a defeat - this is a rout for the Democrats and everything they stood for in this election.

Democrats are saying that the democrats survived Nixon and they survived Reagan, so they'll survive this. But throughout those administrations, Democrats controlled The US House, and numerous statehouses. This morning, we wake up to the reality that Democrats control no part of the Federal Government, the moderates are leaving the Bush cabinet (specifically, Powell and Ridge), and their control out in the states is now marginal. This is a power shift of absolutely unprecented scope; rarely before has America stood at a crossroads with such very different paths ahead of it and headed down one path with such gusto.

The democrats, as it seems to me, are finished as a serious force in American politics.

Defining prog rock

This is just to archive a post I frequently refer to on other forums in case it gets deleted, and concerns my view on what does (and does not) constitute prog rock.

A Definition of Progressive Rock

1. Combines classical music's sense of space and monumental scope with rock's raw power and energy.

2. Frequent inclusion of musical styles from other than a rock format (e.g. - classical, R&B, jazz, folk, avant-garde and world music).

3. Complex, dynamic and multi-dimensional usually featuring intricate keyboard and guitar playing (often using a Mellotron or string synth to simulate an orchestra backing).

4. A blending of acoustic, electric and electronic instruments where each plays a vital role in translating the emotion of compositions which typically contain more than one mood.

5. A mixture of loud passages, soft passages, and musical crescendos to add to the dynamics of the arrangements. Extended instrumental solos, perhaps involving some improvisation.

6. Multi-movement compositions that center on a core musical theme. Tracks predominantly on the longish side, but structured.

7. Subject matter typically drawn from science fiction, mythology, fantasy and utopian literature.

Some common, though not universal, elements of progressive rock include:

- Long compositions, sometimes running over 20 minutes, with intricate melodies and harmonies that require repeated listening to grasp. These are often described as epics and are the genre's clearest nod to classical music. An early example is the 23-minute "Echoes" by Pink Floyd. Other famous examples include Yes' "Close to the Edge" (18 minutes) and Genesis' "Supper's Ready" (23 minutes). More recent extreme examples are the 60-minute "Light of Day, Day of Darkness" by Green Carnation and "Garden of Dreams" by The Flower Kings, running about 64 minutes (though broken up into 18 sections).

- Lyrics that convey intricate and sometimes impenetrable narratives, covering such themes as science fiction, fantasy, religion, war, love, madness and history.

- Concept albums, in which a theme or storyline is explored throughout an entire album in a manner similar to a film or a play. In the days of vinyl, these were usually two-record sets with strikingly designed gatefold sleeves. Famous examples include The Lamb Lies Down on Broadway by Genesis; Tales from Topographic Oceans by Yes; Dark Side of the Moon and The Wall by Pink Floyd; and the more recent Snow by Spock's Beard.

- Unusual vocal styles and use of multi-part vocal harmonies. See Magma, Robert Wyatt, and Gentle Giant.

- Prominent use of electronic instrumentation—particularly keyboard instruments such as the organ, piano, Mellotron, and Moog synthesizer, in addition to the usual rock combination of electric guitar, bass and drums.

- Use of syncopation, unusual time signatures, scales or tunings. Some pieces use multiple time signatures and/or tempos, sometimes overlaid. King Crimson often combined several of these elements in the same song. Many of Rush's favorites are partly or wholly in 7/8 meter. Dream Theater's fiendishly difficult to play "Dance of Eternity" features changes of time signature in a sequence 5/8-5/8-7/8, 5/8-7/8, 5/8-5/8-7/8.

- Solo passages for virtually every instrument, expressly designed to showcase the virtuosity of the player. This is the sort of thing that contributed to the fame of such performers as keyboardist Rick Wakeman and drummer Neil Peart.

- Inclusion of classical pieces on albums. For example, Yes start their concerts with a taped extract of Stravinsky's Firebird suite, and Emerson Lake and Palmer have performed arrangements of pieces by Copland, Bartók, Moussorgsky, Prokofiev, Janacek, Alberto Ginastera, and often interpolate extensive quotes from J. S. Bach in lead breaks. Marillion once started concerts with Rossini's La Gazza Ladra (The Thieving Magpie), and named their third live album the same. Symphony X has included parts by, or inspired by, Beethoven, Holst and Mozart. Emerson Lake and Palmer have even gone as far as interpreting classical pieces: Pictures at an Exhibition is the prime example, being a Mussorgsky composition to which lyrics were added. Other examples are "The Barbarian" (an arrangement of Bartók's piano piece "Allegro Barbaro") and "Knife Edge" (an arrangement with lyrics of Janacek's Sinfonietta, with the Allemande from J. S. Bach's French Suite in D minor serving as the second half of the lead break).

Progressive rock compositions often follow:

- The form of a piece that is subdivided into subpieces in the manner of a classical suite. An example is the four-part song "Close to the Edge" on the album pf the same name by Yes; another is the seven-part "A Change of Seasons" by Dream Theater.

- The form of a piece that is composed of two or more pieces in the manner of a patchwork. Good examples are the multi-part song "Supper's Ready" on Foxtrot by Genesis or the song "A Day in the Life" on Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band by The Beatles. More recently, this can be seen in the song "Paranoid Android" on OK Computer by Radiohead.

- The form of a piece that allows the development of musical ideas via progressions or variations in the manner of a bolero or a canon. "King Kong" on Frank Zappa's Uncle Meat illustrates this well.

Racism in liberal thought

See article.

The Peterson Verdict

It sounds like the title of a Robert Ludlum thriller, but to California - where Scot Peterson has been found guilty on BOTH counts of murder: that of his wife...And that of his child. Who was unborn.

As much as there is an immediate human reaction of satisfaction at the verdict, which sees a man who brutally murdered his wife sent to the slammer, those of you on the pro-choice side should actually be looking long and hard at this verdict, because it effectively adds legal precedent to the deployment of Laci & Connor's Law, a piece of legislation which defines a child in utero as a life that can be ended, and defines ending that life as a criminal act separate to the murder of the mother. At the time of the bill's adoption, I pointed out that this was a clever way to change, subtly and slowly, the framing of the abortion debate without using the "A" word: to begin to shift the public consensus in the direction of accepting the child as a separate life. Anyone who thinks that this is paranoia should consider two things: first, that I'm not trying to oppose the measure, and in fact support it. Second, that the right wing is comfortable working in the long-term. After Barry Goldwater's defeat in '64 The Republican Party and its supporters spent over a billion dollars and forty years to fundamentally alter the tone of public debate in America, in order to create a more favourable electoral environment. The payoff came in Reagan's victory in '80, the Contract with America ending forty years of democratic rule in the US House in '94, and and the evisceration of the democratic party last tuesday (something I'll blog about later). My point is this: Laci & Connor's law didn't declare abortion illegal, but its intent and long-term view simply couldn't be clearer.

While this is not the first time someone's been convicted of killing an unborn child, it is as far as I know the first time that someone has been convicted under Federal law - and it sets a precedent for future prosections. The jury obviously accepted the argument that killing an unborn child is murder, otherwise they wouldn't have found him guilty on the second murder charge - and this is in California, "most liberal state in the Union" (TM). Expect the wedge to get fatter as we go.

Lastly, you have to think about something else, too: Peterson will appeal, and that means a Federal Judge will likely rule on this matter. They will almost certainly, of course, uphold the conviction - because what possible grounds could Peterson appeal on? He was convicted reasonably under the terms of Lacy & Connor's law, which leaves him one option: to appeal against the constitutionality of Laci & Connor's law itself. And that's a very, very tenuous argument - which is testament to the care taken in drafting the legislation. It's hard to envisage a result of an appeal other than a written precedent from a Federal Judge that upholds the definition of the killing of an unborn child as murder.

Ipswitch discontinue IMAIL

Story.

Ipswitch are discontinuing Imail!! I don't know exactly how much I can add to Joel's analysis, which is spot-on, beyond the unasked question: who the hell do they think their customer base is?!

Of course, one could argue that this is going to be a good thing, helping the undecided who need a push to jump to a Linux solution. But exactly what that solution is, I'm still undecided on...I know that my former employers have already jumped ship from Imail to a solution built on Postfix, so might have to take a more detailed look-see what they're up to.

No fly list - will it fly?

I feel the need to recount a patently absurd online debate with someone who is opposed to the administration's proposed no-fly lists. In response to something I wrote: